Although not marking the exact bottom, readings of this nature were not a million miles from the lows of , and With a hoard of cash waiting in the wings, there is always the possibility of this reading again marketing the bottom. However, this market has left many seasoned professionals scratching their heads as the selloff has been unlike anything seen for generations.
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In recent months, these markets have reached extremes of sentiment that in the past have market key turning points. The trouble is that of late, markets have continued to make new extremes way beyond previous inflection points. One market that has been away from the headlines is gold. Gold was seen as a hedge against inflation and was used as a hedge against the weak dollar. With inflation on the wane and the dollar on the attack, gold has been on the retreat. World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday.
The weeks action was all the more damning considering the Eurozones admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1. Financials were amongst the worst performing companies as Libor broke its 23 day decline.
As this originally was seen as getting to the heart of the matter in terms of offloading toxic assets, investors are confused as to what this means for future prospects for financial firms in the US. Much worse are the rumours that Fannie May may have to tap into US government cash to avoid liquidation. Until very recently HSBC and Santander were seen as being at arms length to the current crisis due to their relatively low exposure to the US housing market.
This is reflected in the performance of financial shares across the globe. Even when the wider market attempted a rally, financials were weighing on sentiment, like a ship trying to sail with its anchor still deployed. Although last weeks UK unemployment data and sales projections from various companies fell below consensus, European markets didnt revisit the October lows and US markets managed to rally from beneath them.
Despite the economic outlook arguably looking bleaker than it did just two weeks ago, markets havent capitulated. The optimistic interpretation of this scenario is that the bad news is starting to be priced in by the stock market. As markets are forward looking by at least 6 months, they could be discounting the slowdown that virtually everyone is predicting, and are looking for what happens after that.
The pessimistic interpretation of the current scenario is that markets are as over optimistic now as they were a couple of months ago. The default reaction to any impending disaster is in most cases denial then panic.
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The pessimist would argue that investors are still too optimistic about companys future growth prospects, and so further falls are likely. The reality is that markets are flipping from optimism to pessimism almost by the hour and remain entrenched in a choppy mess. After repeated failed rallies over the last few weeks, the bulls would be forgiven for giving up the ghost.
The coming week kicks off with some middle tier US industrial production figures and Treasury secretary speaking late on Monday evening. Wednesday sees the release of the last MPC meeting minutes and with Gordon Brown calling for further rate cuts, these minutes will be poured over closely for hints of future decisions.
Later that evening the FOMC release the minutes from their last meeting and although many argue they are done for now, Wall Street is still calling for more cuts. There have been many comparisons between current market action and the great depression of the s, and in many ways these comparisons are valid. The last time markets were as choppy as they are today was indeed the s.
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The world is a very different place to how it was years ago, but the current extremes were seeing point back to this period as being a strong likeness. According to Rob Hannah of Quantifiable Edges, the stock market only recovered from this decade long malaise, once it switched from chop mode to trending mode. If a long period of chop is the worst we experience over the next few months, even years, although frustrating, there may be worse things that could happen.
Ironically, a smooth decline which bottoms out to form a smooth rally may be the real harbinger of a recovery. This may be a moot point as we are still far from seeing smooth rallies or smooth declines. This has happened three times on the Dow Jones, all dates between and None of them marked a low, but were within a week or so of one. Barry Rithholtz also noted that market bottoms are rarely completed without multiple retests of prior lows. This is arguably what we were seeing last week. While there is considerable risk of further selling, at least with fixed odds trading our risk is limited to our stake.
Therefore a Bull bet, which predicts that the market will be higher than a certain level in the future could offer an attractive risk reward. A bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones Wall Street will be higher than in 9 days time could return EU — — Sentix Investor Confidence. UK — — Claimant Count Change. UK — — Unemployment Rate. US — — Unemployment Claims.. Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.
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The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period. Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to filter down to consumers.
This is especially the case now with banks being slow to pass on cuts to customers. The MPC have sent out a message that they are prepared to treat the threat posed by the global slowdown very seriously. Unfortunately this message is a double edged sword, the euphoria that immediately met the rate cut was short lived and the FTSE soon rolled over and headed back towards the lows of the day. Experts had been calling for cuts of this magnitude over a number of months, but the MPC may have bundled all their planned rate cuts in one dramatic roll of the dice. It may be some time before they cut again, preferring to let the dust settle on the biggest single cut in a generation.
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The worse data point to come out was actually the downwards revision to Septembers payroll figures, which pushed September payrolls down from , to , This means that so far in , over 1 million jobs have been lost, most of these have been in the financial sector but the slump is prevalent in virtually every US sector. However, the reality is that financial markets are forward looking, which means that most of the time the bad news is already taken into account when it comes.
The net result is that the preceding two day sell off appears to have overshot slightly. On the credit markets, libor and credit default swaps continue to improve for the worlds largest financial firms. The cost of insuring against companies defaulting on their debt is still very high by historical standards, but they have still come down a long way in the last few weeks. In short, things have most certainly improved since the dark days of October, but there is a long way to go before we can say safely say that this credit crisis is over.
The ECBs 50bp cut was largely expected last week, but there were some bold last minute predictions of a bp cut. Investors will be listening carefully for any hints from Trichet on future decisions. Last week Morgan Stanleys European strategist Teun Draaisma commented that stocks were now flashing a full house buy signal. According Draaisma markets have now fully priced in an earnings recession and retail investors, purchasing manager and sell side analysts have capitulated.
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