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Money Management: The most critical factor of any trading system.? Successful traders will already have a money management system is place.? Money management ensures that the traders will always be in business despite a bad spell.? Good traders will lose money.? Bad traders lose more often.?

Martingale (betting system) - Wikipedia

Whatever you trading level, a good money management system will prevent a wipeout of your portfolio. Risk Control: How much can you afford to lose in a trade if it goes wrong?? That must be determined before any position is opened.? Setting your rules upfront will curb emotional and irrational decision making.? For most traders, emotional decisions can almost certainly be the worst decision that they make.? Knowing what to do before trouble come knocking will help keep you on your toes.


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    Martingale (betting system)

    Tharp points out The natural bias that most people have is to go for high probability systems with high reliability. We all are given this bias that you need to be right. We're taught at school that 94 percent or better is an A and 70 or below is failure.

    Betting Strategy That Works - Make an Income Betting on Sports

    Nothing below 70 is acceptable. Everyone is looking for high reliability entry systems, but its expectancy that is the key. And the real key to expectancy is how you get out of the markets not how you get in. How you take profits and how you get out of a bad position to protect your assets. The expectancy is really the amount you'll make on the average per dollar risked. If you have a methodology that makes you 50 cents or better per dollar risked, that's superb.

    Most people don't. Nassim Taleb puts it this way: "In some strategies and life situations, it is said, one gambles dollars to win a succession of pennies. In others one risks a succession of pennies to win dollars.


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    While one would think that the second category would be more appealing to investors and economic agents, we have an overwhelming evidence of the popularity of the first. What we as traders must do is become the house. The odds in our trading must favor us, we need a reasonable number of trades during the year and the trades must be completed in a reasonable amount of time for compounding to be effective. Expectancy is simply the product of your profit percentage per win and your win rate minus the product of your loss percentage per loss and your loss rate.

    For example:. That's better odds than a casino gets on blackjack. Now, that may not sound like a lot of money. This does not even include the profits if you compounded the average trade. If you explore the expectancy formula, you will notice that there is no one set of numbers that could give a positive expectancy but an infinite number of sets and therefore an infinite number of trading systems that could be profitable.

    Given that, it is possible to develop systems where the stop loss is larger than the profits. The stop loss is academic, as long as your profit expectancy is positive. Or, you could arrive at a positive expectancy with a very low win rate. The bottom line is: expectancy must be positive if you want to make a profit over time. Never use a system with a zero or negative expectancy. You will not win.

    It’s Like Other Things in Life

    You can not beat the house over a long series of bets or trades. Be the "House". No matter what your expectancy is, you will not make a great deal of money unless you have a lot of opportunities to trade.